Thursday, February 09, 2012

Brokered spoke - Updated

Every time I think I can pronounce my conspiracy theory about a brokered convention as DOA, the cons give it another transfusion:
It is conceivable to craft the following general scenario: Romney wins states in the west and northeast, Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum combine to dominate the south, Midwest and Appalachia, and Ron Paul siphons off a chunk of delegates. If such a scenario plays out, it’s possible to see how Romney could have problems getting over the top, even if analysts are broadly correct that his money and organization give him the edge.
Meanwhile, Ron Paul is quietly amassing delegates. Romney may have more money, but Ron Paul looks like he has a better handle on strategy in acquring the actual numbers. Reminds me a lot of the Democratic Massashusetts primary leading up to the gubernatorial race of 2002. That would be the race Romney won. I continue to think Robert Reich would have been the Dem candidate if his grass roots supporters had understood the caucus process better.

In any event, the conventional wisdom is the GOP establishment won't let a brokered convention happen, but I'm thinking they could pretty easily end this comedy of horrors at any time. Their problem is Romney makes it more obvious every day they don't have a candidate that can win. So allowing this to play out to the bitter end, as the kids say, could be a feature, not a bug. Again, more than happy to be wrong. [via Bob Cesca]

Update: Sen. Jim DeMint (R-Tea Party) just said a brokered convention is a possibility.

[More posts daily at the Detroit News.]

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