Saturday, June 13, 2009

Election Fallout in Iran

I can't say I'm surprised to hear the Ahmadilooney won Iran's election yesterday. The big question of course, is was the win legitimate? Considering the big build-up, a 2-1 margin on a first ballot seems a bit suspect to me.

The Guardian makes a case for the legitimacy of the vote, noting that outside Tehran the support for the government is strong. But reading The Lede's live coverage of the voting would also suggest that readiness for change was brewing more strongly than only within 30% of the voting population.

MyDD has a good roundup of links that are following the fraud allegations being made by the only viable losing candidate, Moussavi, and his supporters. I don't know enough about the integrity of the process there to say for sure, but my gut tells me that there was probably some manipulation. For one thing 538's analysis showed that it should have been closer and they're usually right on target. Granted they may have relied too much on western press coverage that is being widely said to have been too optimistic, but this is certainly odd if it's true.
U.S. analysts find it "not credible" that challenger Mir Hossein Mousavi would have lost the balloting in his hometown or that a third candidate, Mehdi Karoubi, would have received less than 1 percent of the total vote, a senior U.S. officials told FOX News.
Makes me wonder if they use touch screen balloting. In any event, I'm thinking the outcome isn't as significant to US interests as the reaction of the Iranian people will be. I'm already seeing some reports of protests in the streets. This story, as they say, is still developing. Much more commentary, as always, at Memorandum.

[More posts daily at The Detroit News]

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