Sotomayor vote pool
I'm ready to start the Sotomayor vote pool. So far I only know of two on the record predictions. John Cole has 75 and Jay Ackyord has 72. I'm going for the under and taking 69. I'll be surprised if she gets that many.
Labels: SCOTUS
posted by Libby Spencer at 9:53 PM
5 Comments:
I'll be bold and take 76.
Yesterday's hearings were the first time I heard her talk for an extended period of time. I was extremely impressed - she is very smart and very articulate and very knowledgeable, and I suspect she is going to have a substantial impact on the court. She should get 100 votes.
Almost all of the Republicans will say NO. I call 65.
I'm going over...and, goddess help me, it's because of Lindsay "Puffy" Graham. I think he dropped a tell yesterday, can't remember the exact phrasing but suggesting that her answers in the hearing had impressed him as to her ability to be impartial (whoo, whoo, snort). A Yes vote here, when they know it's meaningless anyway, gives them cover when, again imploring the goddess, a real lefty is nominated next time.
Of course this is predicated on the possibility that the rump Repubs are capable of acting in their own long term best interests, a dubious point on which to hang my predictive awesomeness. O well. :)
My pick: 90-8.
(max I think would be 98-0 assuming Kennedy and Byrd are too sick to come back for anything short of Armageddon.)
66 for her. Most of the Republicans are in safe seats. They know she has the votes so a no vote is the safe vote for them.
Interesting. I was momentarily swayed by Graham and I think he may well vote for her, but the GOPer talking points around my bloggerhoods are all negative. Gotta figure they're setting up for a no vote to please the base. I think I'm in too high. We may all be.
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