Tuesday, February 19, 2008

Early Exits from Wisconsin

Politicalwire has compiled some exit polling.
  • Women: Obama 51%, Clinton 49%
  • Change vs. experience, 52% to 24%.
  • Just 17% are first time voters
  • Families with income under 50,000: Obama 51%, Clinton 49%
  • Independents: Obama 63%, Clinton 34%
  • Seniors: Clinton 60%, Obama 39%
  • Top quality - experience: Clinton 95%, Obama 5%
  • Union households: Clinton 50%, Obama 49%

This exit polling could be wrong, but oy. The narrative will likely be the one Mike Allen characterizes,
The news out of the primary will be: Obama encroached deeply into three of Clinton’s core groups of voters — women, those with no college degree and those with lower incomes — while giving up none of his own.

[Posted by Mike - Born at the Crest of the Empire]
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Blogger Libby Spencer said...

It's very interesting to see how Obama's constituency is growing. I shudder to think how ugly the race is going to get if he blows her away again on this round.

You may need a flack jacket to protect yourself from the crossfire in TX.

9:22:00 PM  
Blogger mikevotes said...

Yep, we're groud zero. However, one of the lessons of Wisconsin may be that negative didn't work. All that chaff thrown in the last few days didn't close the margin. (Of course we can't look over their shoulders and see the more specific internal polling they're working off of.)

It's so weird, for all my life, presidential votes have been meaningless in Texas, the primaries were decided before us, and the state always votes GOP in the general.

10:43:00 PM  
Blogger Libby Spencer said...

I've been predicting for a couple of years that this would be the election that busts the conventional wisdom but even I never expected it to be this tumultuous. Should be an interesting couple of weeks down there.

8:57:00 AM  

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