No Way To Win

Does the escalating fighting in Basra after the British pullout work as a model for the rest of Iraq after the U.S. withdraws? It would certainly seem that way. Instead of what once was thought of as a model for the way things should be done

It has become a different model, one that U.S. officials with experience in the region are concerned will be replicated throughout the Iraqi Shiite homeland from Baghdad to the Persian Gulf. A recent series of war games commissioned by the Pentagon also warned of civil war among Shiites after a reduction in U.S. forces.

It comes down to the same thing it always has; stable Iraqi leadership and a populace eager for peace. Unfortunately, there is neither in Iraq.

There are too many factions to keep straight, both tribal and religious. They don't want peace, they want power and the ability to deliver payback to their rivals and enemies.

American forces today are winning the battle against the insurgency, but where is the Iraqi government? There isn't one. There hasn't been one since Saddam was overthrown and there won't be one until the sectarian wars play themselves out after the U.S. withdraws. That could happen next year or it might take ten years, but when we leave, it will happen.

For the past four years, the administration's narrative of the Iraq war has centered on al-Qaeda, Iran and the sectarian violence they have promoted. But in the homogenous south -- where there are virtually no U.S. troops or al-Qaeda fighters, few Sunnis, and by most accounts limited influence by Iran -- Shiite militias fight one another as well as British troops. A British strategy launched last fall to reclaim Basra neighborhoods from violent actors -- similar to the current U.S. strategy in Baghdad -- brought no lasting success.

There will be no clean victory for us in Iraq. Eventually we will leave. Not this year or next year and probably not until most of our national treasure has poured into this sandy cesspool.

The idea of democracy in Iraq is the nonsensical raving of an idiot.

Jim Martin

Thanks to The Blog Report for the link.