Monday, January 23, 2012

If it ain't brokered, how are they going to fix it?

I was planning to let my favorite conspiracy theory rest but with Newt's big win in South Carolina, the panic among the GOP establishment demands a brief resurrection. This comes up today because Josh at TPM noticed GOP pundits wishing for a savior to emerge from the shadows and rescue their primary from this lunacy. Josh runs the numbers and rightfully notes it's much too late for someone to jump in via the traditional route.

I tweeted Josh to mention the wishful thinking I've seen rests more on a brokered convention. Not making that up. I don't have cable but Angry DougJ saw it on the morning after South Carolina. And I saw a few headlines roll through Memorandum suggesting it as well.
Josh then tweeted: To answer: I think in the 21st century, brokered convention guarantees loss in Nov. & who convinces Newt/Mitt to give up their delegates?
I have an answer to that. It wouldn't fit into a tweet, but let's review my old posts. If you think about it, a draft in August leaves a candidate with only two months of media exposure. Which happens to be about the same length of time every GOP frontrunner who is not Mitt has enjoyed the adoration of the base. I wouldn't bet money that they couldn't win with that strategy.

If the primary battle does continue until the convention, all the candidates will have fatal flaws well exposed. Party is fractured. Not exactly a path to victory either. What do they have to lose with a draft? And my money is still on Chris Christie as the guy they would pick to save them. Sure he's had some exposure as Romney's wingman, but he's said nothing on the campaign trail yet that has hurt him. He's wowed the crowds at every stop. Not impossible for me to envision, if it indeed did come down to Mitt and Newt, that Mitt could be Christie's VP instead of the other way around. Mitt is still young enough to parlay a VP slot into one more future run for top dog in eight years.

And as for Newt, hell, how hard is it to buy him off? They could do it with a straight money bribe. Or they could offer him a high profile slot in the administration where he could parlay his grifting skills into a personal fortune.

Again, not saying I believe it's a plausible theory, but never say never, especially given politics as they're practiced in this age.

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