Sunday, January 29, 2012

Brokered dreams

With every day that passes, I'm more afraid my crazy conspiracy theory will actually come true. Certainly, a brokered convention is very much on the minds of a lot of GOPers. Newt just came within an inch of predicting it outright.
“We have no evidence yet that Romney anywhere is coming close to getting a majority,” Mr. Gingrich said. “And I think when you take all of the non-Romney votes, it’s very likely that at the convention there will be a non-Romney majority – and maybe a very substantial one – and my job is to convert that into a pro-Gingrich majority.”

He vowed to mount “a straight-out contest for the next four or five months” and said he would go “all the way to the convention.”
Artur Davis is boldly predicting a brokered convention from his perch at The National Review.
Not one bit of it is implausible. Arguably, a deadlock is an entirely realistic outcome in a race where Romney’s institutional edges are considerable, but his vulnerabilities and Gingrich’s raw campaign skills are more than enough to offset that advantage. It is also all too likely that the result of a protracted bout would be two candidates so bruised that neither remains competitive with Obama. If so, there will be a sense of panic, and it is not hard to conceive that Romney could come under intense pressure to sacrifice himself to avert a November catastrophe.
And Jake tells me an extended primary is a feature of the RNC's plan.
Why would this go on for awhile? Because a combination of an elongated schedule, new Republican National Committee rules, and some quirks of fate have diminished the importance of individual contests and reduced the ability for knock-out punches.

Part of the reason for this schedule is then-RNC chair Michael Steele wanted an extended primary season so as to ensure a strong nominee...
All this taken in the context of the power of the super PACs to drive the narrative with their multi-million dollar ad blitz makes it look more likely every day. As I said weeks ago, the people funding these PACs all have a common goal -- to get rid of Obama. Nobody running now can unite the fractured base. An unexpected savior, delivered in August, could not only easily unite, but also excite them.

Say what you will, they almost got away with it with Sarah Palin. They learned from that. This time they'll pick someone who knows, and will play by, their rules.

[More posts daily at the Detroit News.]

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Blogger merlallen said...

I really hope Gingrich gets the nomination and takes down all of the down ticket Pubs with him

8:09:00 PM  
Blogger Libby Spencer said...

I'm rooting for Newt myself.

11:24:00 AM  

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